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Miguel Rodriguez v Richie Fallows (Thu 06 Feb 2020)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 10-12,11-8,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,197, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,780, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Richie Fallows.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 27% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 41,586, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 45,015 (based on typical behaviour), Richie Fallows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -2.7% and Richie Fallows changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1% and for Richie Fallows becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 71%, Richie Fallows: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 65%, Richie Fallows: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 46,649, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 32,277, level confidence: 78%.