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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Karim El Hammamy (Wed 05 Feb 2020)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,511, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,981, level confidence: 54%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 70% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 41,242 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 24,260. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +4.2% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +1.4% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 86%, Karim El Hammamy: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 80%, Karim El Hammamy: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,839, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,696, level confidence: 69%.