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Nouran Gohar v Melissa Alves (Fri 24 Jan 2020)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 5-11,11-2,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 13,907, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Melissa Alves: 7,967, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 75% better than Melissa Alves.

Nouran Gohar won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 34% better than Melissa Alves in this match.

As Nouran Gohar has played below her allowed range at 11,166, her level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Nouran Gohar would normally have been playing at level 12,749 (based on typical behaviour), Melissa Alves played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to -3% and Melissa Alves changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes -1.4% and for Melissa Alves becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carol Weymuller Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 90%, Melissa Alves: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 79%, Melissa Alves: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 13,601, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Melissa Alves: 8,211, level confidence: 74%.