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Emily Whitlock v Ho Tze-Lok (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Emily Whitlock. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Emily Whitlock: 8,928, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,757, level confidence: 46%.
Emily Whitlock to win as she is currently playing 32% better than Ho Tze-Lok.

Emily Whitlock won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emily Whitlock played 52% better than Ho Tze-Lok in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emily Whitlock actually played at a level of 9,565 and Ho Tze-Lok at a level of 6,307. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emily Whitlock changes to +5.3% and Ho Tze-Lok changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emily Whitlock becomes +2.1% and for Ho Tze-Lok becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emily Whitlock: 74%, Ho Tze-Lok: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emily Whitlock: 69%, Ho Tze-Lok: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emily Whitlock: 8,966, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,689, level confidence: 64%.