SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

James Willstrop v Peter Creed (Sat 30 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-5,11-7,9-11,9-11,11-4.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,333, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,920, level confidence: 62%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Peter Creed.

James Willstrop won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 16% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 34,128, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 42,810 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -8.8% and Peter Creed changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -2.2% and for Peter Creed becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 82%, Peter Creed: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 66%, Peter Creed: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 46,240, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,816, level confidence: 63%.