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Gregoire Marche v Eain Yow Ng (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 51,020, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 40,529, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Gregoire Marche won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 31% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 52,129 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 39,667. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +1.9% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +0.7% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 86%, Eain Yow Ng: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Eain Yow Ng: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,110, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 40,504, level confidence: 88%.