SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Nicholas Snr Wall v Hollie Naughton (Wed 11 Dec 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-5,11-6,8-11,10-12,9-11.

Starting level for Nicholas Snr Wall: 11,457, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,122, level confidence: 64%.
Nicholas Snr Wall to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Hollie Naughton.

Hollie Naughton won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 5% better than Nicholas Snr Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 9,906 and Nicholas Snr Wall at a level of 9,393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +18% and Nicholas Snr Wall changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +5.3% and for Nicholas Snr Wall becomes -4.4%.

Given Hollie Naughton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to her level change.

Given Nicholas Snr Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Hollie Naughton is +3.6% and for Nicholas Snr Wall is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 80%, Nicholas Snr Wall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 66%, Nicholas Snr Wall: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Snr Wall: 11,188, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 8,431, level confidence: 66%.