Elvinn Keo v Nafizwan Adnan (Fri 15 Nov 2019)
Match won by Elvinn Keo. Result: 11-6,11-4,7-11,9-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Elvinn Keo:
16,626, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nafizwan Adnan:
30,135, level confidence: 33%.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing
81% better than Elvinn Keo.
Elvinn Keo won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elvinn Keo played
13% better than Nafizwan Adnan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elvinn Keo actually played at a level of
23,807 and Nafizwan Adnan at a level of
21,045. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elvinn Keo changes to +13% and Nafizwan Adnan changes to -31%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elvinn Keo becomes +3.5% and for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -6.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Singapore Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nafizwan Adnan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elvinn Keo: 88%, Nafizwan Adnan: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elvinn Keo: 62%, Nafizwan Adnan: 40%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Elvinn Keo:
17,178, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan:
29,201, level confidence: 40%.