Baptiste Masotti v Mark Fuller (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-2.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
37,516, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mark Fuller:
19,073, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing
97% better than Mark Fuller.
Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
154% better than Mark Fuller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
42,619 and Mark Fuller at a level of
16,789. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 9.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +9.3% and Mark Fuller changes to -9.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.3% and for Mark Fuller becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 87%, Mark Fuller: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 77%, Mark Fuller: 76%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
38,387, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Mark Fuller:
18,572, level confidence: 76%.