Adrian Waller v Chris Simpson (Sun 10 Nov 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 15-13,11-7,11-1.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
46,052, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
37,487, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Chris Simpson.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
76% better than Chris Simpson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
55,151 and Chris Simpson at a level of
31,302. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +18% and Chris Simpson changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +3.7% and for Chris Simpson becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 72%, Chris Simpson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 60%, Chris Simpson: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
47,451, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
36,634, level confidence: 72%.