Cesar Salazar v Nathan Lake (Sun 10 Nov 2019)
Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 14-12,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
40,065, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
38,232, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Nathan Lake.
Cesar Salazar won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played
52% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of
48,197 and Nathan Lake at a level of
31,782. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +20% and Nathan Lake changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +4.1% and for Nathan Lake becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 81%, Nathan Lake: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 68%, Nathan Lake: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
41,546, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
37,198, level confidence: 77%.