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Nouran Gohar v Nele Gilis (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 14,074, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nele Gilis: 9,415, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 49% better than Nele Gilis.

Nouran Gohar won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 200% better than Nele Gilis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 19,938 and Nele Gilis at a level of 6,646. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to +33% and Nele Gilis changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes +7.6% and for Nele Gilis becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nouran Gohar is limited to +4.4% and Nele Gilis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 88%, Nele Gilis: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 62%, Nele Gilis: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 14,652, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Nele Gilis: 9,146, level confidence: 62%.