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Hollie Naughton v Farida Mohamed (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 13-11,10-12,7-11,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,058, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Farida Mohamed: 7,173, level confidence: 50%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 12% better than Farida Mohamed.

Hollie Naughton won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 11% better than Farida Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 8,024 and Farida Mohamed at a level of 7,203. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to 0% and Farida Mohamed changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes -0.2% and for Farida Mohamed becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 82%, Farida Mohamed: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 82%, Farida Mohamed: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,978, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Farida Mohamed: 7,213, level confidence: 71%.