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Hollie Naughton v Alexandra Fuller (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,857, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alexandra Fuller: 7,515, level confidence: 65%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 5% better than Alexandra Fuller.

Hollie Naughton won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 74% better than Alexandra Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 10,127 and Alexandra Fuller at a level of 5,831. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +25% and Alexandra Fuller changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +6.9% and for Alexandra Fuller becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Hollie Naughton is limited to +5.3% and Alexandra Fuller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 86%, Alexandra Fuller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 67%, Alexandra Fuller: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 8,244, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Alexandra Fuller: 7,141, level confidence: 63%.