Tarek Momen v Joel Makin (Sat 28 Sep 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
65,461, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
57,638, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Joel Makin.
Tarek Momen won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
23% better than Joel Makin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
68,136 and Joel Makin at a level of
55,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +2.9% and Joel Makin changes to -2.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1% and for Joel Makin becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 83%, Joel Makin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 80%, Joel Makin: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
65,992, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
57,378, level confidence: 86%.