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Nour El Tayeb v Hollie Naughton (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Nour El Tayeb. Result: 11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 14,573, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,812, level confidence: 60%.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing 87% better than Hollie Naughton.

Nour El Tayeb won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Tayeb played 83% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nour El Tayeb was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 11,760 and 14,573 without affecting her level.

In this case, Nour El Tayeb played at level 14,322 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Hollie Naughton is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Tayeb: 83%, Hollie Naughton: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Tayeb: 82%, Hollie Naughton: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 14,526, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,857, level confidence: 77%.