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Benjamin Aubert v Yahya Elnawasany (Mon 23 Sep 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 31,978, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,055, level confidence: 68%.
Benjamin Aubert to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Yahya Elnawasany.

Benjamin Aubert won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 25% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Benjamin Aubert was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,655 and 31,978 without affecting his level.

As Benjamin Aubert has played below his allowed range at 21,140, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Benjamin Aubert would normally have been playing at level 27,503 (based on typical behaviour), Yahya Elnawasany played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to -8% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes -2.2% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No3' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 80%, Yahya Elnawasany: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 61%, Yahya Elnawasany: 63%.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 31,299, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,584, level confidence: 63%.