Mike McCue v Alejandro Reyes (Fri 20 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-3,6-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Mike McCue:
19,865, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Alejandro Reyes:
11,306, level confidence: 39%.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing
76% better than Alejandro Reyes.
Mike McCue won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played
11% better than Alejandro Reyes in this match.
As Mike McCue has played below his allowed range at 14,418, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Mike McCue would normally have been playing at level 18,176 (based on typical behaviour), Alejandro Reyes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to -8.1% and Alejandro Reyes changes to +15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes -2.4% and for Alejandro Reyes becomes +4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kiva Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 73%, Alejandro Reyes: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 58%, Alejandro Reyes: 49%.
Final level for Mike McCue:
19,404, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Alejandro Reyes:
11,786, level confidence: 49%.