Fares Dessouky v Benjamin Aubert (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-2,11-8.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
53,061, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Benjamin Aubert:
31,083, level confidence: 58%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Benjamin Aubert.
Fares Dessouky won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played
120% better than Benjamin Aubert in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of
60,237 and Benjamin Aubert at a level of
27,380. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 10.2% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 7.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +6.3% and Benjamin Aubert changes to -7.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +1.7% and for Benjamin Aubert becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 83%, Benjamin Aubert: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 73%, Benjamin Aubert: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
53,671, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert:
30,606, level confidence: 67%.