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Raneem El Welily v Camille Serme (Thu 29 Aug 2019)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-6,10-12,11-6.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,073, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Camille Serme: 11,780, level confidence: 47%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 19% better than Camille Serme.

Raneem El Welily won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 13% better than Camille Serme in this match.

As Raneem El Welily has played below her allowed range at 13,546, her level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Raneem El Welily would normally have been playing at level 13,937 (based on typical behaviour), Camille Serme played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to -1% and Camille Serme changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes -0.5% and for Camille Serme becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 91%, Camille Serme: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 88%, Camille Serme: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 13,941, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Camille Serme: 11,953, level confidence: 67%.