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Tom Richards v Mostafa Asal (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,605, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 43,820, level confidence: 40%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 65% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 52,832 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 32,020. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +21% and Mostafa Asal changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +4.3% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mostafa Asal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 81%, Mostafa Asal: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 59%, Mostafa Asal: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,102, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 41,727, level confidence: 46%.