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Hania El Hammamy v Ho Tze-Lok (Wed 04 Sep 2019)

Match won by Hania El Hammamy. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Hania El Hammamy: 10,370, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,895, level confidence: 61%.
Hania El Hammamy to win as she is currently playing 50% better than Ho Tze-Lok.

Hania El Hammamy won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hania El Hammamy played 136% better than Ho Tze-Lok in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hania El Hammamy actually played at a level of 12,982 and Ho Tze-Lok at a level of 5,508. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hania El Hammamy changes to +15% and Ho Tze-Lok changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hania El Hammamy becomes +4.4% and for Ho Tze-Lok becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hania El Hammamy: 89%, Ho Tze-Lok: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hania El Hammamy: 71%, Ho Tze-Lok: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hania El Hammamy: 10,628, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,749, level confidence: 62%.