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Mostafa Asal v Zhou Zhitao (Wed 04 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 43,820, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Zhou Zhitao: 3,340, level confidence: 12%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 1212% better than Zhou Zhitao.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 200% better than Zhou Zhitao in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 64%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,567 and 43,820 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 12,510 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 15,619 (based on typical behaviour), Zhou Zhitao played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Zhou Zhitao changes to +6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Zhou Zhitao becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 83%, Zhou Zhitao: 35%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 40%, Zhou Zhitao: 17%.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 43,820, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Zhou Zhitao: 3,441, level confidence: 17%.