SquashLevels calculations
Adam Corcoran v Adrian Waller (Sat 10 Aug 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 6-11,3-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Adam Corcoran:
16,077, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
44,058, level confidence: 43%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
174% better than Adam Corcoran.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
136% better than Adam Corcoran in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,163 and 44,058 without affecting his level.
In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 37,896 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Adam Corcoran is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 65%, Adam Corcoran: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 61%, Adam Corcoran: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adam Corcoran:
16,053, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
43,992, level confidence: 61%.