Omar El Torkey v Yahya Elnawasany (Fri 02 Aug 2019)
Match won by Omar El Torkey. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-3.
Starting level for
Omar El Torkey:
23,956, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
16,267, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Omar El Torkey to win as he is currently playing
47% better than Yahya Elnawasany.
Omar El Torkey won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar El Torkey played
200% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar El Torkey actually played at a level of
34,192 and Yahya Elnawasany at a level of
11,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar El Torkey changes to +34% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar El Torkey becomes +7% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'World Junior Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Omar El Torkey is limited to +6.1% and Yahya Elnawasany is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar El Torkey: 80%, Yahya Elnawasany: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar El Torkey: 56%, Yahya Elnawasany: 63%.
Final level for Omar El Torkey:
25,429, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
15,492, level confidence: 63%.