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Diego Elias v Josue Enriquez (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 55,434, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Josue Enriquez: 15,888, level confidence: 64%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 249% better than Josue Enriquez.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 83% better than Josue Enriquez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,516 and 55,434 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 33,728 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 39,055 (based on typical behaviour), Josue Enriquez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to 0% and Josue Enriquez changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes 0% and for Josue Enriquez becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 62%, Josue Enriquez: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 45%, Josue Enriquez: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 55,351, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Josue Enriquez: 16,144, level confidence: 58%.