Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Omar Elkattan (Sun 21 Jul 2019)
Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 11-9,11-5,8-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
31,241, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Omar Elkattan:
19,275, level confidence: 52%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing
62% better than Omar Elkattan.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played
32% better than Omar Elkattan in this match.
As Abdulla Al-Tamimi has played below his allowed range at 26,367, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Abdulla Al-Tamimi would normally have been playing at level 29,209 (based on typical behaviour), Omar Elkattan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 5.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -2.8% and Omar Elkattan changes to +5.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -1.1% and for Omar Elkattan becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 70%, Omar Elkattan: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 63%, Omar Elkattan: 65%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
30,897, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Omar Elkattan:
19,615, level confidence: 65%.