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Victor Crouin v Tomo Endo (Sat 13 Jul 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-8,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 36,356, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tomo Endo: 17,755, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Tomo Endo.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 50% better than Tomo Endo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Victor Crouin was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,508 and 36,356 without affecting his level.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 27,084, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 31,624 (based on typical behaviour), Tomo Endo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -1.1% and Tomo Endo changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -0.4% and for Tomo Endo becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tasmanian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 85%, Tomo Endo: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 73%, Tomo Endo: 74%.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 36,202, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tomo Endo: 18,103, level confidence: 74%.