Thomas King v Victor Crouin (Thu 04 Jul 2019)
Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 1-11,3-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Thomas King:
7,450, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
34,488, level confidence: 39%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
363% better than Thomas King.
Victor Crouin won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played
371% better than Thomas King in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of
34,803 and Thomas King at a level of
7,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +0.4% and Thomas King changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +0.2% and for Thomas King becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Australian Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 62%, Thomas King: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 62%, Thomas King: 90%.
Final level for Thomas King:
7,442, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
34,546, level confidence: 62%.