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Rui Soares v Mohamed Nabil (Fri 21 Jun 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 13-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 26,563, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,287, level confidence: 53%.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Mohamed Nabil.

Rui Soares won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 41% better than Mohamed Nabil in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rui Soares was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,481 and 26,563 without affecting his level.

As Rui Soares has played below his allowed range at 20,828, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Rui Soares would normally have been playing at level 23,887 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Nabil played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to -2% and Mohamed Nabil changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes -0.8% and for Mohamed Nabil becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mississauga Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 78%, Mohamed Nabil: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 68%, Mohamed Nabil: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 26,345, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,592, level confidence: 64%.