Marcus Hayes v Paul Stroud (Mon 10 Jun 2019)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-1,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,084, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Stroud:
8,881, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Marcus Hayes.
Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
94% better than Paul Stroud in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of
11,805 and Paul Stroud at a level of
6,082. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +40% and Paul Stroud changes to -44%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +10.1% and for Paul Stroud becomes -10.6%.
Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Warwickshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +5.4% and for Paul Stroud is -5.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 87%, Paul Stroud: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 60%, Paul Stroud: 57%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,505, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Paul Stroud:
8,649, level confidence: 57%.