Reiko Peter v Tarek Shehata (Wed 22 May 2019)
Match won by Reiko Peter. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-5,11-2.
Starting level for
Reiko Peter:
24,337, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Tarek Shehata:
19,808, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Reiko Peter to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Tarek Shehata.
Reiko Peter won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reiko Peter played
36% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Reiko Peter actually played at a level of
25,634 and Tarek Shehata at a level of
18,806. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reiko Peter changes to +4.8% and Tarek Shehata changes to -4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reiko Peter becomes +1.6% and for Tarek Shehata becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Pilatus Indoors - PSA Sekisui Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reiko Peter: 82%, Tarek Shehata: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reiko Peter: 78%, Tarek Shehata: 82%.
Final level for Reiko Peter:
24,730, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata:
19,496, level confidence: 82%.