SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

James Willstrop v Lucas Serme (Tue 14 May 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 18-16,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,340, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 35,934, level confidence: 56%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Lucas Serme.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 38% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 48,381 and Lucas Serme at a level of 35,161. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +1.3% and Lucas Serme changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +0.5% and for Lucas Serme becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 91%, Lucas Serme: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 89%, Lucas Serme: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 47,388, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 35,950, level confidence: 73%.