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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Sebastien Bonmalais (Sun 12 May 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-7,11-9,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 36,272, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 22,363, level confidence: 60%.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Sebastien Bonmalais.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 30% better than Sebastien Bonmalais in this match.

As Iker Pajares Bernabeu has played below his allowed range at 30,350, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Iker Pajares Bernabeu would normally have been playing at level 33,907 (based on typical behaviour), Sebastien Bonmalais played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -2.6% and Sebastien Bonmalais changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -1% and for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 88%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 79%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 35,829, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 22,878, level confidence: 69%.