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Salma Hany v Hollie Naughton (Thu 09 May 2019)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-9,5-11,11-4.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,106, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,681, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 6% better than Hollie Naughton.

Salma Hany won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 10% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Salma Hany actually played at a level of 8,294 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 7,507. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to +2.3% and Hollie Naughton changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes +1.2% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manchester Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 83%, Hollie Naughton: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 81%, Hollie Naughton: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 8,121, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,619, level confidence: 88%.