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Lucas Serme v Benedek Seb?K (Sun 28 Apr 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 35,699, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Benedek Seb?K: 9,707, level confidence: 21%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 268% better than Benedek Seb?K.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 267% better than Benedek Seb?K in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lucas Serme was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,803 and 35,699 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lucas Serme played at level 35,592 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Benedek Seb?K is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 86%, Benedek Seb?K: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 86%, Benedek Seb?K: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 35,646, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Benedek Seb?K: 9,692, level confidence: 46%.