James Willstrop v Edmon Lopez Moller (Sat 27 Apr 2019)
Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
James Willstrop:
44,552, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
35,952, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing
24% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.
James Willstrop won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played
106% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of
57,477 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of
27,868. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +26% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +5% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -4.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 92%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 72%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Willstrop:
46,432, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
34,558, level confidence: 74%.