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Benjamin Aubert v Todd Harrity (Wed 24 Apr 2019)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 13-11,7-11,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 28,925, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 33,703, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Benjamin Aubert won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 20% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Benjamin Aubert actually played at a level of 34,222 and Todd Harrity at a level of 28,486. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to +17% and Todd Harrity changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes +3.8% and for Todd Harrity becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 83%, Todd Harrity: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 70%, Todd Harrity: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 29,967, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,639, level confidence: 73%.