Simon Rösner v Declan James (Fri 12 Apr 2019)
Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
52,994, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Declan James:
43,828, level confidence: 62%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Declan James.
Simon Rösner won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played
83% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of
65,254 and Declan James at a level of
35,593. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +20% and Declan James changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +4% and for Declan James becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dpd Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 81%, Declan James: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 66%, Declan James: 64%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
54,764, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Declan James:
42,344, level confidence: 64%.