Patrick Rooney v Victor Crouin (Fri 05 Apr 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-9,14-16,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
28,142, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
34,177, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Patrick Rooney.
Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
28% better than Victor Crouin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
35,096 and Victor Crouin at a level of
27,405. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +22% and Victor Crouin changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +4.8% and for Victor Crouin becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 74%, Victor Crouin: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 60%, Victor Crouin: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
29,450, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
33,543, level confidence: 75%.