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Max Lee v Dimitri Steinmann (Wed 27 Mar 2019)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Max Lee: 41,720, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 30,146, level confidence: 55%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Max Lee won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 27% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

As Max Lee has played below his allowed range at 38,612, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 40,346 (based on typical behaviour), Dimitri Steinmann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to -0.8% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes -0.3% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 79%, Dimitri Steinmann: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 76%, Dimitri Steinmann: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 41,529, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 30,634, level confidence: 71%.