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Shawn Delierre v Sebastien Bonmalais (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Shawn Delierre. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Shawn Delierre: 23,470, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,674, level confidence: 64%.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Shawn Delierre.

Shawn Delierre won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shawn Delierre played 65% better than Sebastien Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shawn Delierre actually played at a level of 30,278 and Sebastien Bonmalais at a level of 18,351. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre changes to +29% and Sebastien Bonmalais changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre becomes +6.2% and for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manitoba Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shawn Delierre: 71%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shawn Delierre: 55%, Sebastien Bonmalais: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shawn Delierre: 24,770, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 22,710, level confidence: 62%.