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Tsz Fung Yip v Campbell Grayson (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,833, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 33,047, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Campbell Grayson.

Tsz Fung Yip won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 31% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tsz Fung Yip actually played at a level of 41,592 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 31,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to +4% and Campbell Grayson changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +1.3% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 81%, Campbell Grayson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 77%, Campbell Grayson: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 40,202, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 32,791, level confidence: 82%.