SquashLevels calculations
Ali Farag v Paul Coll (Thu 28 Feb 2019)
Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-8,11-7,4-11,11-1.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
75,073, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
57,909, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Paul Coll.
Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played
29% better than Paul Coll in this match.
In this case, Ali Farag played at level 74,687 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Paul Coll is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 85%, Paul Coll: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 84%, Paul Coll: 91%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Farag:
75,036, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Paul Coll:
58,007, level confidence: 91%.