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Ali Farag v Mostafa Asal (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 72,021, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 35,776, level confidence: 67%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Mostafa Asal.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 371% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 110,213 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 23,379. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +35% and Mostafa Asal changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +5.9% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ali Farag is limited to +4.4% and Mostafa Asal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 82%, Mostafa Asal: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 54%, Mostafa Asal: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 75,132, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 34,041, level confidence: 54%.