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Lucas Serme v Karim El Hammamy (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-8,11-1,11-5.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,021, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 29,727, level confidence: 49%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 136% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 50,240 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 21,314. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +24% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +4.9% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karim El Hammamy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 84%, Karim El Hammamy: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 60%, Karim El Hammamy: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 37,500, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,294, level confidence: 50%.