Gregoire Marche v Greg Lobban (Mon 25 Feb 2019)
Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 19-17,8-11,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
46,735, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
38,368, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Greg Lobban.
Gregoire Marche won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played
25% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of
47,384 and Greg Lobban at a level of
37,843. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +1.3% and Greg Lobban changes to -1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +0.5% and for Greg Lobban becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Greg Lobban: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 83%, Greg Lobban: 91%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
46,746, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
38,377, level confidence: 91%.