Pablo Richet v Benjamin Bergel (Fri 22 Feb 2019)
Match won by Pablo Richet. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Pablo Richet:
4,789, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Benjamin Bergel:
5,806, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Benjamin Bergel to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Pablo Richet.
Pablo Richet won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pablo Richet played
22% better than Benjamin Bergel in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pablo Richet actually played at a level of
5,815 and Benjamin Bergel at a level of
4,782. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pablo Richet changes to +19% and Benjamin Bergel changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pablo Richet becomes +6.3% and for Benjamin Bergel becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pablo Richet: 80%, Benjamin Bergel: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pablo Richet: 66%, Benjamin Bergel: 72%.
A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Pablo Richet:
5,104, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Benjamin Bergel:
5,679, level confidence: 72%.