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Dries Verhaegen v Pablo Richet (Fri 22 Feb 2019)

Match won by Dries Verhaegen. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Dries Verhaegen: 6,796, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Pablo Richet: 4,682, level confidence: 47%.
Dries Verhaegen to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Pablo Richet.

Dries Verhaegen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dries Verhaegen played 27% better than Pablo Richet in this match.

As Dries Verhaegen has played below his allowed range at 6,093, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Dries Verhaegen would normally have been playing at level 6,512 (based on typical behaviour), Pablo Richet played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dries Verhaegen changes to -1.1% and Pablo Richet changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dries Verhaegen becomes -0.6% and for Pablo Richet becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'French Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dries Verhaegen: 92%, Pablo Richet: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dries Verhaegen: 86%, Pablo Richet: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dries Verhaegen: 6,772, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Pablo Richet: 4,789, level confidence: 64%.