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Lucas Serme v Toufik Mekhalfi (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 36,549, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Toufik Mekhalfi: 9,086, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 302% better than Toufik Mekhalfi.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 371% better than Toufik Mekhalfi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 39,567 and Toufik Mekhalfi at a level of 8,393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +4% and Toufik Mekhalfi changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +1.4% and for Toufik Mekhalfi becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 79%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 73%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 78%.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 37,045, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Toufik Mekhalfi: 8,936, level confidence: 78%.