Lucas Serme v Toufik Mekhalfi (Wed 13 Feb 2019)
Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-1.
Starting level for
Lucas Serme:
36,549, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Toufik Mekhalfi:
9,086, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing
302% better than Toufik Mekhalfi.
Lucas Serme won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played
371% better than Toufik Mekhalfi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of
39,567 and Toufik Mekhalfi at a level of
8,393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +4% and Toufik Mekhalfi changes to -3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +1.4% and for Toufik Mekhalfi becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 79%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 73%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 78%.
Final level for Lucas Serme:
37,045, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Toufik Mekhalfi:
8,936, level confidence: 78%.